Mostrando postagens com marcador Asia. Mostrar todas as postagens
Mostrando postagens com marcador Asia. Mostrar todas as postagens

segunda-feira, 24 de julho de 2017

IMF raises economic growth forecast for Asia

(FILE) Chinese migrant workers rest outside a construction site during lunch time in the central business district (CBD) of Beijing, China, 17 July 2017. EPA/ROMAN PILIPEY

The International Monetary Fund raised its growth forecast for the major Asian economies for 2017 and 2018, after it published World Economic Outlook Update published in Kuala Lumpur on Monday.

The strongest improvement in Asia was registered in China, whose growth is forecast at 6.7 percent in 2017 and at 6.4 percent in 2018, 0.1 and 0.2 percent stronger respectively than projected in April.

Source: Reuters

quarta-feira, 5 de julho de 2017

Oil retreats after bull run, on rising OPEC exports, strong dollar

An employee pumps petrol for clients at a petrol station in Hanoi, Vietnam December 20, 2106. REUTERS/Kham
REUTERS/Kham

Oil prices fell more than 1 percent on Wednesday, ending their longest bull-run in more than five years, as climbing OPEC exports and a stronger dollar turned sentiment more bearish.

Benchmark Brent crude futures were down 57 cents, or 1.2 percent, at $49.04 a barrel by 1020 GMT. Prices had climbed for eight straight sessions to Monday.

U.S. WTI crude futures were down 63 cents, or 1.3 percent, at $46.44 a barrel after reaching a one-month high of $47.32 earlier in the session.

"The air is getting thin for oil prices. The price increase just ran out of steam, which is not very surprising, given the newsflow of rising OPEC supplies," said Carsten Fritsch, senior commodity analyst at Commerzbank.

Another analyst said the strong dollar provided less incentive to invest in greenback-denominated commodities such as crude oil.

Oil exports by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries climbed for a second month in June, Thomson Reuters Oil Research data showed.

OPEC exported 25.92 million barrels per day (bpd) in June, up 450,000 bpd from May and 1.9 million bpd more than a year earlier.

The rise in exports comes despite OPEC's vow to rein in production until March 2018 and follows hot on the heels of Reuters' monthly OPEC production survey which found output jumped to a 2017 high last month as OPEC members Nigeria and Libya continued to pump more.

Nigeria and Libya are both exempt from the output pact.

The head of the International Energy Agency told Reuters that rising output from key oil producers could hamper expectations that the oil market would rebalance in the second half of the year.

Traders were also eyeing weekly U.S. crude inventory data, delayed by a day due to the U.S. public holiday on Tuesday.

A Reuters poll showed analysts expected weekly crude stocks to have fallen by 2.8 million barrels. The weekly data showed a surprise rise in inventories last week.

Underlining an expected shift in longer term oil demand, car group Volvo said on Wednesday that from 2019 all of its new models would be fully electric or hybrid vehicles.


Source: Reuters

sexta-feira, 30 de junho de 2017

Asia demand for U.S., Atlantic Basin oil set to jump as buyers prep for winter

Asian demand for crude oil from the Atlantic Basin and the Americas is set to rise as low prices drive Japanese and South Korean buyers to snap up cargoes to arrive ahead of peak winter consumption.

Robust appetite from the region could help soak up excess supplies in Europe and the United States, offering some support to benchmark global prices that plumbed 10-month lows last week.

The loading of oil shipments from Europe and the Americas to Asia tapered off in June after surging between March and May, but the recent price slump is pushing Asian buyers and traders to once again turn to the North Sea Forties grade of oil and to U.S. crude.

Some traders hope the value of cargoes will increase during the time spent en route to Asia, with a possible upcoming climb in prices indicated by October ICE Brent futures this month rising as much as 70 cents per barrel above the prompt month August contract.

"We know people are taking WAF (West African) and North Sea," said a trader with a North Asian refiner, declining to be identified as he was not authorized to speak with media.

A widening of Brent's premium to West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude to almost $3 a barrel earlier this month has particularly buoyed the appeal of moving U.S. oil to Asia.

Japanese refiners JXTG and Cosmo Energy have bought U.S. cargoes that will arrive in September, trade sources said, ahead of the winter season when power demand jumps as people crank up electric heating.

JXTG has purchased 1 million barrels of U.S. Mars crude, while Cosmo has bought a mixture of WTI Midland and Domestic Sweet (DSW) blend, those sources said.

Both companies declined to comment on the matter.

Meanwhile, traders expect 2 million to 4 million barrels of North Sea Forties to load in July and arrive in South Korea from the end of August to early September. [O/LOAD]

More Libyan crude could also make its way to Asia as output there rises. Thailand's PTT PLC recently bought Libya's Amna crude from Chinese trader Unipec for delivery in August and September.

Elsewhere, the release of a second batch of Chinese crude import quotas has also spurred sellers to bring more oil to Asia, said an analyst at a trading company.

And shipping data shows that ExxonMobil, which operates a refinery in Thailand, chartered the Aframax Astro Saturn to take U.S. crude from Corpus Christi, Texas to Sri Racha, Thailand for end-July arrival.

"U.S. crude has high potential. We want to diversify our supply sources (and are interested)," an official from a Southeast Asian refiner said, adding that it was keen on both light-sweet and medium-sour crude but not the DSW blend because of quality issues.

Source: Reuters

segunda-feira, 26 de junho de 2017

China's COFCO likely to sit out global grains race as it digests acquisitions


As the world trade in farm commodities faces a shake-up, one of the groups widely expected to play a leading role - China's COFCO - will probably have to sit out the industry consolidation after all.

Sources with knowledge of COFCO's expansion strategy say the state-run conglomerate is struggling to integrate businesses it bought three years ago, deals which made it a significant global agricultural trader but are now hindering its ability to swoop on rivals.

Illustrating the problems, the sources said that at times different arms of the agribusiness had tried to compete against each other in commodity deals. On top of this, several senior staff had recently left its trading operations while a heavy group debt burden presented another impediment to further mergers and acquisitions.

"For now, the focus is on reorganization and digesting the acquisitions," said a COFCO official, who declined to be identified. "Thoughts of further aggressive M&A or building assets are on the backburner for at least a couple of years," the official told Reuters.

Spokespeople for COFCO Group and its newly-formed COFCO International trading arm did not respond to requests for comment.

One of about 100 conglomerates controlled by China's central government, COFCO Group has interests that include hotels, real estate and some of China's leading food and drink brands including GreatWall wine.

It trades more than 78 million tonnes of grain a year, according to state media, and in 2014 agreed to buy Dutch grain trader Nidera and the agribusiness of Singapore-listed Noble Group for more than $3 billion.

The deals gave COFCO assets in some of the top grain, vegetable oil, sugar and coffee producing regions. They also allowed it to start challenging the "ABCD" quartet of agricultural commodity traders - Archer Daniels Midland (ADM), Bunge, Cargill [CARG.UL] and Louis Dreyfus Company [AKIRAU.UL] - which have long dominated the global business.

These firms were once highly profitable but in recent years record stocks of commodities such as corn, soybeans and wheat have sliced margins and dampened trading opportunities.

A first sign of sweeping change for the industry emerged last month when Swiss mining and commodities group Glencore Plc made an informal approach to Bunge to discuss "a possible consensual business combination".

While Bunge said it was not engaging in such talks, some kind of industry consolidation seems unavoidable and some people had said Glencore's move might spur COFCO into M&A action.

"For the past year I've expected that it would be COFCO that would go after Bunge. This may motivate them further," Jay O'Neil, an agricultural economist at Kansas State University, said last month.

Sources familiar with COFCO's thinking, however, also played down this possibility. "The company has suffered a lot because of the lengthy process of going toward one group," one of the sources said. "It will take some time to repair the damage of the last couple of years."

As COFCO Group is a state-owned enterprise, any acquisition would also need Chinese government approval, which could be a lengthy process.

COFCO INTERNATIONAL

COFCO unveiled its new division, COFCO International, on April 24, bringing together Nidera and its Swiss-based grain arm COFCO Agri under new chief executive Johnny Chi.

According to its website, the company aims to expand its business globally and "strengthen worldwide origination, logistics and trading capabilities" supported by COFCO's unique position in China.

The company has increased staff numbers in Geneva, home to COFCO International's headquarters and the center of its grains and oilseeds business. Its Rotterdam office separately plays a core role in trading activities.

Since the start of the year, COFCO has tried to replace two top officials at COFCO Agri, who sources said left due to disagreements over the direction of the group.

Company memos seen by Reuters showed that there has also been a string of departures in recent weeks, including head trader Wolfgang Stiehler, who had joined Nidera only in January this year to provide strategy also. Stiehler did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.

Other officials who have left included traders, back office staff and local country managers, the memos showed.

A second source said Nidera and COFCO Agri had recently tried to compete for the same grain deal. While the duplication was eventually prevented, there were other similar instances and it was unclear whether those were stopped. "How is this supposed to happen if it's one company?" the source added.

"The transition into a merger is looking more difficult than people thought. The merger is complex and will not be quick," a third source said.

Two of the sources said separately that COFCO Agri was still buying grains from bigger rivals such as ADM, even though COFCO International was operational. This was due to the need to hedge deals, or to ensure they are completed promptly, one of the sources said.

DEBT AND CASH

Another obstacle to more acquisitions is COFCO's debt and cash position. Data from its results showed the group's total debt had risen to 51.88 billion yuan ($7.6 billion) in 2016 from 50.63 billion yuan the previous year.

Separately, the parent group's cash and cash equivalent position dropped to 1.28 billion yuan in 2016 from 4.13 billion yuan in the previous year. COFCO group's operating profit fell to 0.85 billion yuan in 2016 from 1.96 billion in 2015.

COFCO International's shareholders also include Singapore state investor Temasek, China-based private equity firm HOPU Investments, Standard Chartered and the World Bank's private sector investment arm IFC, according to regulatory statements.

Temasek, HOPU and Standard Chartered all declined to comment, while COFCO's investor relations department declined to provide details about the size of shareholdings in COFCO International. An IFC spokesman confirmed it had invested in the company but gave no details of the stake.

SOUTH AMERICAN GROWTH

Since first investing in Nidera, COFCO has reported several major problems, including a $150 million financial hole in its Latin American operations and $200 million in unauthorized trading losses on its biofuels desk in the region.

However, it has also made progress there. Data seen by Reuters showed COFCO, through Nidera's and Noble Agri's existing operations, has become the second biggest grain exporter from Argentina, behind Cargill.

In Brazil, data showed that COFCO had moved up to the no. 4 grain exporter slot in 2016, ahead of Louis Dreyfus.

"It's a new company with a lot of people coming from other firms," said Joseph Reiner, COFCO International's Brazil-based global head of coffee. "Growth has to be sustainable, considering resources and results," he told Reuters.

COFCO is already gaining prominence in the sugar market. Last month it sold the bulk of sugar - primarily sourced from Brazil - against the May ICE futures raw sugar contract. This was the second-largest delivery against the contract.

COFCO is estimated to rank as Brazil's no. 6 sugar player. Marcelo de Andrade, Sao Paulo-based president of global sugar at COFCO International, said the firm had looked at possible purchases of sugar mills in Brazil "but decided to abort any deals".

"At the moment we are not looking (at buying) any more and we are keen to fill as much as possible our current crushing capacity," he told Reuters.

Source: Reuters

segunda-feira, 12 de junho de 2017

Qatar crisis to speed the rise of Asia's spot LNG trade

FILE PHOTO: A membrane-type liquefied natural gas (LNG) tanker is moored at a thermal power station in Futtsu, east of Tokyo, Japan February 8, 2017.  REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo
Qatar's isolation by other Arab nations has dealt a strong hand to Japanese utilities in talks reviewing long-term gas contracts with the top LNG exporter, likely accelerating a shift to a more openly traded global market for the fuel.

If Japan gets its way in the periodic contract review, the world's biggest buyer of LNG would have to import more short-notice supplies from producers such as the United States, another step away from rigid deals that run for decades towards a more active spot market.

At stake for Qatar are 7.2 million tonnes of annual liquefied natural gas (LNG) sold in contracts that expire in 2021. The $2.8 billion a year in gas mostly goes to Japan's JERA, a joint venture between Tokyo Electric and Chubu Electric that is the world's single biggest LNG buyer.

"Since the crisis emerged, the Japanese are sure not to renew all contracts and they will push very hard to get more flexible terms," said an advisor on LNG contracts, speaking on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of ongoing negotiations.

Qatar and Japan as seller and buyer will each account for nearly a third of 300 million tonnes to be shipped this year in 500 tankers. Any change in how volumes trade between them is sure to jolt an industry where practices in place since the 1970s are already being challenged.

In some ways the situation is similar to what happened in Europe between 2008 and 2014, when amid an economic crisis and tensions between Europe and Russia, European utilities renegotiated gas purchase terms, freeing up more supplies for spot markets.

Three deals between Japan and Qatar are under a periodic review, three sources with knowledge of the matter said, potentially allowing for some adjustments, and the buyers may also only partially renew the contracts when they expire.

An official with a Japanese buyer would not comment on individual contracts, but said purchase agreements were typically reviewed every five years.

That fits with the deals under discussion, which will expire in 2021 and were signed in 1997/1998 and in 2012.

Qatar Petroleum was not available for comment.

TABLES TURN

LNG volumes grew to 260 million tonnes last year from 250 million tonnes in 2015, produced by around a dozen countries, with more than half coming from Qatar, Australia and Malaysia.

Thirty-nine countries imported LNG in 2016, up by four from the previous year, with 70 percent of world consumption in Asia.

Facing competition from new producers, Qatar talked tough with Japan ahead of the contract reviews, warning buyers not to demand too many changes, or Japanese companies could be squeezed out of their stakes in Qatar's LNG projects.

But the tables have turned since Arab nations including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) cut ties with Doha, boycotting its trade and weakening Qatar's negotiating position.

Cheniere, the only U.S. company to export LNG so far, is offering its supplies as an alternative.

"This dispute is a timely reminder of the value of the diversity and flexibility of supply that destination–free U.S. exports bring to individual buyers," said Cheniere spokesman Eben Burnham-Snyder.

Unlike other exporters, Cheniere allows its buyers to re-sell cargoes.

The Qatar crisis "will further encourage international LNG buyers to include more American LNG ... for reliability reasons," said Kent Bayazitoglu, director of market analytics at Gelber & Associates in Houston.

Source: Reuters

sexta-feira, 9 de junho de 2017

Iran raises oil exports to West, almost on par with Asia

A gas flare on an oil production platform in the Soroush oil fields is seen alongside an Iranian flag in the Persian Gulf, Iran, July 25, 2005. To match Exclusive OPEC-OIL/   REUTERS/Raheb Homavandi/File Photo
Iran's oil exports to the West surged in May to their highest level since the lifting of sanctions in early 2016 and almost caught up with volumes exported to Asia, a source familiar with Iranian oil exports said.

Iran, which used to be OPEC's second biggest oil exporter, has been raising output since 2016 to recoup market share lost to regional rivals including Saudi Arabia and Iraq.

While many Asian nations continued to purchase oil from Iran during sanctions, Western nations halted imports, halving Iran's overall exports to as little as one million barrels per day (bpd).

Last month, Iran exported about 1.1 million bpd to Europe including Turkey, almost reaching pre-sanction levels and only slightly below the 1.2 million bpd supplied to Asia, the source told Reuters.

Iran's exports to Asia last month were the lowest since February 2016, Reuters' calculations showed.

Oil exports to Asia fell as South Korea and Japan stepped up oil condensate purchases and bought less oil, said the source, who asked not to be identified as the information is confidential.

"Iran's condensate parked in floating storage has almost been exhausted because of higher purchases by Japan and Korea," the source said.

Exports to Asia were also hit by India's decision to cut annual purchases from Iran by a fifth for the fiscal year to March 2018.

After the lifting of sanctions, Tehran added new clients such as Litasco and Lotos and won back customers such as Total (TOTF.PA), ENI (ENI.MI), Tupras (RDSa.L), Repsol (REP.MC), Cepsa CPF.GQ and Hellenic Petroleum (HEPr.AT).

OPEC member Iran was allowed a small production increase under a December deal to limit output.

Iran's overall May oil production totaled 3.9 million bpd, the source said.

Iran is currently producing about 200,000 bpd of West Karoun grade, which the nation blends with other Iranian heavy grades for export, he said.

Source: Reuters

segunda-feira, 8 de maio de 2017

Oil rout driven by China, inventories and funds

An employee fills a motorcycle tank as another motorcyclist waits to buy petrol at a gas station in Hefei, Anhui province March 23, 2012. REUTERS/Stringer
The plunge in crude oil markets this week to a six-month low was likely driven by worries about Chinese economic growth, persistently high inventories and fund positioning.

U.S. crude oil CLc1 slumped by 5.0 percent to a low of $45.29 a barrel on Thursday, the lowest since November, when the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed to curb production by 1.8 million barrels per day for six months from Jan. 1.

However, Friday saw a 1.5 percent bounce helped by assurances by Saudi Arabia that Russia is ready to join OPEC in extending supply cuts to reduce a persistent glut.

"People often reverse-engineer an explanation. But, I think the velocity of the move this week stems from China and its liquidity tightening. That spooked the market across all commodities," said Michael Tran, director of global energy strategy at RBC Capital Markets. "It's a commodities story rather than oil-specific."

Chinese manufacturing surveys this week triggered worries that the economic growth in the world's second largest economy may have peaked in the first quarter and China's central bank has moved to tighten credit leading to a fall in stock prices for the fourth straight week.Doubts that the OPEC-led supply cut of the past few months are deep enough to draw down bloated storage levels around the world are also weighing on prices. U.S. crude stockpiles fell less than expected last week as rising U.S. production offset reduced supply from OPEC.

As a result, oil traders may have finally given up on an early rebalancing of inventories in the crude market by OPEC.

FUNDS A FACTOR

One dominant group appeared to rush into the selling: managed futures firms, or Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs), which manage about $340 billion in assets, according to BarclayHedge, a fund research group in Fairfield, Iowa.

These funds advise others on buying or selling futures, futures options, and foreign-exchange forward contracts. They often look at macro-economic trends across asset classes and trade dozens of markets using models to detect the start and end of moves.

For such firms, multiple signs of a trend change were clear this week: a nose-dive in Chinese iron ore futures DCIOcv1, big losses in gold and copper prices, and persistently high oil inventories that spooked crude oil traders.

Those fears appeared to be heightened by a note from J.P. Morgan analysts Thursday, citing increasing risk that Saudi Arabia would reverse its cuts and pump more crude. J.P. Morgan did not respond to requests for comment.

Even though oil prices have weakened since mid-March, speculators have maintained long positions, putting them in danger of a reversal like Thursday's sell-off.

"There are definitely some new shorts in the crude oil market. The systematic CTAs, the ones not trading fundamentals and purely technical, were definitely sellers," Nick Gentile, managing partner of commodity trading advisor NickJen Capital in New York, said.

As prices continued to fall, liquidation of timespreads added to the move, according to a note from Goldman Sachs.

Hedge funds are also losing faith that OPEC can accelerate the rebalancing of the oil market even if the group agrees to extend output cuts when it meets later this month.

The speed and direction of the selling this week was enough to cause the December 2017 crude contract price to fall below the December 2018 contract CLZ7-Z8, an indication of increasing worries about the overhang of supply.

Volumes spiked Thursday, with more than 940,000 front-month U.S. crude contracts changing hands, compared to the daily average of 535,000 contracts.

"The obvious thing is that the market was massively long. When it's a crowded trade, things tend to do the opposite very quickly," said Gentile.

Source: Reuters

segunda-feira, 3 de abril de 2017

Shipping container price spike points to global trade growth



Prices for shipping containers, the metal boxes that carry 90 percent of the world's manufactured goods, have risen to their highest since October 2015, a clear indicator that seaborne trade is increasing and should grow further this year.

The Harpex Shipping Index, which tracks weekly shipping container rates, has climbed 40 percent this year to 439 points. Container charterers say that lead times to order container have risen, to over a month in some cases, as not enough are available to meet demand.

The tight market for the standardized boxes is a result of carriers cutting overcapacity and follows some bankruptcies. But the gains also point to a recovery in global trading after years of lackluster growth.

"The market seems tight... (and) we are urging liners to release more box," said Willy Lin, chairman of the Hong Kong Shippers' Council, which represents manufacturers and cargo owners.

Sector-specific factors like the scrapping of excess ships and the bankruptcy of South Korea's Hanjin Shipping have pushed up the index. But, shippers also say that increasing international trade has added to the container shortage.

Rene Pedersen, Asia/Pacific representative in Singapore for AP Moeller-Maersk, the world's biggest container shipper, said his company expected global container demand this year will rise between 2 percent to 4 percent, compared with just 1.5 percent to 2 percent growth in 2016.

RISING ASIAN TRADE

The container shortage is happening as manufacturing across Asia's big three biggest economies - China, Japan and India - grew unexpectedly fast in the first quarter, adding to evidence that the world's biggest economic region is gaining momentum.

"China's export box transport market is recovering," the Shanghai Shipping Exchange said in its most recent report, adding that growth in the United States' economy was resulting in "a firm recovery in the North America route (from China)."

The average export volumes from East Asia, including Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore, in February were more than 5 percent higher than a year ago, Capital Economics said in a March 27 report, citing various sources.

"Economies in Europe and the U.S are (also) picking up," Maersk's Pedersen said.

Despite the jump in container rates this year, the Harpex Index remains relatively weak at a third below its last peak in 2015 and 76 percent under its 2005 record.

Maersk's Pedersen said that "the container industry is not out of the woods yet" but that "increased consolidation activity... could lead to a more sustainable industry in 2017."

Source: Reuters

segunda-feira, 27 de março de 2017

China, others lift ban on meat imports in boost for Brazil


China lifted a ban on imports of meat from Brazil on Saturday after Brazilian authorities clarified details of a police investigation into alleged bribery of health inspectors, in a victory for President Michel Temer's efforts to stem damage from the probe.

The move by China, the biggest national consumer of Brazilian meat, was accompanied on Saturday by the lifting of import bans in Egypt and Chile, bringing hope of an end to a crisis that saw one-fifth wiped off the value of Brazilian pork and poultry exports last week.

A slew of major meat importers issued bans after Brazilian federal police unveiled on March 17 an investigation into alleged payments to government health officials by meat processing companies to forego inspections and ignore abuses, codenamed "Operation Weak Flesh".

Temer's government, alarmed the scandal could damage one of the few sectors that has defied a deep recession in Latin America's largest economy, launched a campaign to convince trade partners that any abuses were limited in scope.

Meat is Brazil's third-largest export, after soy and iron ore. The country sold around $13.5 billion in chicken, beef and pork products last year.

Agriculture Minister Blairo Maggi welcomed China's decision and said the government retained a ban on exports from 21 processing plants directly linked to the federal police investigation as it carried out its own inspections.

“Lifting this suspension was the result of a giant effort by Brazil to explain that the investigation targeted the conduct of individuals and not the quality of the meat," Maggi told Reuters.

Officials said that the only one of the 21 plants that exported to China is owned by Seara Alimentos Ltda, a unit of Brazil's JBS SA, the world's biggest meatpacking company.

JBS has strongly denied any wrongdoing and said it upholds strict quality standards.

Two sources in China confirmed that a ban remained in place on imports from the Seara plant, as well as any meat approved by seven Brazilian veterinary experts linked to the police investigation.

Brazilian meat imports have already started being cleared in Shanghai, one of the sources said.

China had suspended imports of all meat products from Brazil, the world's top beef exporter, on March 20 as a precautionary measure.

An aide to President Temer told Reuters that he planned to call Chinese leader Xi Jinping in the coming days. In a statement, Temer voiced confidence that other countries would follow China's example in lifting restrictions.

Chile on Saturday said it was ending a ban on meat purchases from Brazil, except for the 21 suspended plants, while Egypt also resumed imports after a two day-suspension.

South Korea had already called off a short-lived ban on chicken imports from Brazil's BRF SA on Tuesday, after just one day.

BRF, the world's largest poultry producer, has denied selling rotten meat and taking part in any corrupt activities.

The decision by China was crucial because of its size: it consumed some $1.75 billion in Brazilian meat imports last year.

In part, Brazil has been fortunate that rivals were ill-placed to fill the gap.

With China's second-largest beef supplier, Australia, still rebuilding its herd after drought, it could not meet fast-growing Chinese demand.

In the poultry sector, where Brazil supplies more than 85 percent of China's imports, other major producers, such as the United States and some smaller European markets, are banned from supplying to China due to bird flu outbreaks.

Despite the government's success in containing the damage from the scandal, sources familiar with the investigation said there was a large amount of unpublished evidence pointing to widespread fraud and not just isolated abuses in the meat industry.

Source: Reuters

quarta-feira, 22 de fevereiro de 2017

OPEC cuts, weak freight rates help traders profit on Asia crude routes


Oil traders from around the world, including the United States, Britain and Brazil, have tripled their sales to Asia as they take advantage of an emerging supply gap following OPEC-led production cuts announced late last year.

Around 30 supertankers have this month made long-haul trips to ship crude oil from the Americas, the North Sea and the Mediterranean to refineries across Asia, the world's biggest and fastest growing consumer, data extracted from Thomson Reuters Oil Research and Forecasts shows.

The unusual movements follow the decision late last year by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other producers including Russia to cut production by almost 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) during the first half of this year in a bid to rein in global oversupply and prop up prices.

Companies most involved in the long-haul deals include major oil producers such as BP (BP.L) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDSa.L), private commodity traders Trafigura, Vitol and Mercuria, and Chinese refiner Unipec (600028.SS), trading sources say. Energy and mining giant Glencore (GLEN.L), Azerbaijan's state-oil firm Socar and Brazil's Petrobras (PETR4.SA) have also been involved.

Taking advantage of relatively low freight costs and regional crude oil price differentials - known as arbitrage, or arb - traders can profit from supply shortages in one region and oversupply in another.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1, for example, currently trade at around $54.50 per barrel, while international benchmark Brent crude LCOc1 costs $56.90 - a Brent premium over WTI of $2.40 a barrel, compared with near parity in late November, just before OPEC announced its cuts.

"The OPEC cuts have ... led to an open arb for long-haul cargoes, leading to a rise in long-haul crude imports (which) make up for the decline in OPEC (supplies)," said Tushar Bansal, director of Ivy Global Energy, a Singapore-based consultancy.

The cuts are an OPEC policy reversal after two years of pumping out oil and keeping prices low as the cartel sought to squeeze rival exporters.

"OPEC production cuts... created distortions in the Asian crude market, changing global trade patterns," BMI Research said in a note to clients.

OPEC CEDES MARKET SHARE

Helping fill the OPEC gap, crude shipments to Asia from the United States, Britain, Brazil, and even war-torn Libya jumped to over 35 million barrels in February, or 1.26 million bpd, from 10.4 million barrels in October, or 336,000 bpd, the data shows.

For OPEC, which typically meets around 70 percent of Asia's oil demand, that means a 5 percent loss of market share since October.

"Under current oil market conditions, OPEC risks losing market share with further production cuts," said Carole Nakhle, director of advisory firm Crystol Energy in London.

Although OPEC's relationship with customers in Asia tends to be good, refiners in North Asia's consumer hubs of Japan, China, and South Korea say they will readily turn to other suppliers in order to meet their needs.

Loading schedules show U.S. crude exports to Asia increased to more than 3.5 million barrels this month - including a first U.S. oil cargo delivery to India - from below 1 million in October. UK shipments have jumped to more than 10.5 million barrels from just 1.6 million.

Shipments to Asia from Brazil have hit a record 16.7 million barrels in February, up from 6.9 million in October, and Libya, an OPEC-member exempted from the cuts, doubled its Asia shipments to 2 million barrels last month.

Shipping schedules show the trend continuing into March.

BMI said the OPEC cuts, especially of medium and sour crude grades, were "providing opportunities for (similar)... Mediterranean crudes to flow into the Asian market," which include Libyan oil.

WILL THE ARB LAST?

One of the first major long-haul shipments to Asia in this round of arbitrage trading was by BP, which late last year used more than half a dozen tankers to ship almost 3 million barrels of U.S. crude as far as 30,000 km (18,641 miles) to Australia, Thailand and Japan.

In similar deals, Unipec and Trafigura have shipped U.S. oil from the Gulf of Mexico to China. Shippers of North Sea crude to Asia have included Vitol, Mercuria, Trafigura, Glencore, Shell, Unipec and Socar. The main exporter from Brazil has been state-owned Petrobras, shipping data shows, with traders saying its crude has replaced oil from OPEC-member Angola.

Oystein Berentsen, managing director for crude oil trader Strong Petroleum in Singapore, said arbitrage for North Sea and U.S. oil to Asia has been possible due to the OPEC-led cuts, and these routes "may continue depending on freight and price spreads."

Benchmark Middle-East to Japan freight rates for supertankers (VLCC) .BAWC are at 71 points on a so-called Worldscale rate based on 100, compared to a long-term average rate of around 76 over the last 10 years.

"The whole reason arb opportunities are there is because of weak freight," said Matt Stanley, a fuel broker at Freight Investor Services in Dubai.

It's not clear how long this arb window will remain open.

Strong Petroleum's Berentsen said that despite the OPEC cuts "there is still oversupply, but the market will probably balance in the third quarter. Then we'll see if the arb still works."

For a graphic on oil exports to Asia, click here

Source: Reuters

quarta-feira, 15 de fevereiro de 2017

Crisis, what crisis? Asia copper buyers shrug off major mine strikes

Sheets of copper cathode are seen at the copper cathode plant inside La Escondida, the world's biggest copper mine, near Antofagasta, Chile March 31, 2008. REUTERS/Ivan Alvarado/File Photo
Even as strikes cripple output at the world's two biggest copper mines, Asia's copper industry is pretty relaxed, sitting atop metal stockpiles that have grown by nearly two-thirds since the end of January.

Copper inventories tied to China's Shanghai Futures Exchange have surged 61 percent since the week of Jan. 20 to 277,659 tonnes, the most since May 2016, the latest data shows. Stockpiles held in bonded warehouses in China have edged above 500,000 tonnes, from around 450,000 tonnes in November, according to consultants CRU Group.

BHP Billiton declared a force majeure last week on contracted copper shipments from its Escondida site in Chile, the world's largest copper mine, and Freeport-McMoRan Inc has sent home workers from its Grasberg facility, the world's second-biggest mine, this week.

But, because of the ample stockpiles, the outages have not worried the market as copper cathode premiums in China's bonded zones, what buyers will pay above global prices to procure the metal, remain steady at $75 a ton. China is the world's biggest copper user. <0#BASEBW-SHMET>

"In China's bonded market there is still a lot of stock, so we are not that worried about the force majeure for now," said a BHP customer in Shanghai whose February shipments were delayed.

BHP halted its Escondida operations because of a worker's strike while Freeport closed Grasberg after filling up its on-site storage after a strike shuttered the smelter that is the only buyer of its copper output.

In addition to the high refined metal stockpiles, copper ore and concentrates imports to China swelled in the months before the disruptions. November imports were a record 1.76 million tonnes, with December just below that at 1.67 million tonnes, according to customs data. [MTL/CHINA1]

While Chinese premiums remain steady, copper prices have surged, with three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange rising to $6,204 a ton on Monday, the highest since May 25.

On the mine supply side, analysts estimate the disruptions will cut around 5,400 tonnes per day from the global supply of copper concentrate. If the Escondida strike lasts for 20 days, first-quarter global supply could drop 1.8 percent, according to Goldman Sachs.

In theory this could wipe out a small surplus of 80,000 tonnes of refined copper this year, estimated by analysts polled by Reuters.

Analysts at Standard Chartered said the loss of both Escondida and Grasberg is a "justified" bullish factor but they also note the high inventories.

"If sustained beyond the end of February then it is possible that the cathode market could... start to tighten. For the time being, though, we remain in a clear phase of cathode surplus," said the analysts in a report referring to the typical type of refined copper.

With the surge of concentrate imports, most Chinese smelters are in no rush for new supply.

"For the next two to three months most of the smelters are well prepared, particularly the main smelters. They were restocking the concentrate before Chinese New Year, so they are comfortable," said a source at a trade house in Shanghai.

Fees that smelters pay miners to process their concentrate, an indicator of the supply and demand balance, dipped to the mid$80's a ton last week from the high $80s in mid-January, according to CRU.

JX Holdings Inc's metal unit, Japan’s biggest copper smelter, does not expect any impact from Escondida’s strike unless it dragged on for a few months, a spokesman said.

But Escondida could have ripple effects amid labor talks at other mines such as Rio Tinto's Kennecott mine in Utah. One trade house source in North America believes China has underestimated the strikes' impact.

"There is already a lot of enquires and some for as early as February. There seems to be a fair bit of appetite for Feb-March," the source said.

Source: Reuters

segunda-feira, 12 de setembro de 2016

Bullets trump rehab as Asia quickens 'failing' war on drugs


The Philippines has launched a bloody "war on drugs" that has killed at least 2,400 people in just two months, while neighboring Indonesia has declared a "narcotics emergency" and resumed executing drug convicts after a long hiatus.

In Thailand and Myanmar, petty drug users are being sentenced to long jail terms in prisons already bursting at the seams.

The soaring popularity of methamphetamine - a cheap and highly addictive drug also known as meth - is driving countries across Asia to adopt hardline anti-narcotics policies. Experts say they are likely to only make things worse.

Geoff Monaghan has seen it all before. He investigated narco-trafficking gangs during his 30-year career as a detective with London's Metropolitan Police, then witnessed the impact of draconian anti-drug policies as an HIV/AIDS expert in Russia.

"We have plenty of data but often we forget the history," said Monaghan. "That's the problem."

He believes President Rodrigo Duterte's anti-drugs campaign in the Philippines will fuel more violence and entrench rather than uproot trafficking networks. "I'm very fearful about the situation," he said.

Reflecting the regional explosion in use, the amount of meth seized in East and Southeast Asia almost quadrupled from about 11 tons in 2009 to 42 tons in 2013, said the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC).

The only region seizing more meth was North America, where the booming trade inspired the popular television series "Breaking Bad".

Meth was the "primary drug of concern" in nine Asian countries, the UNODC said, including Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, Japan and South Korea.

PLAYING CATCH-UP

A rising chorus of experts blame this surge in production and use of meth in Asia on ineffective and even counterproductive government responses.

They say national drug-control policies are skewed toward harsh measures that criminalize users but have failed to staunch the deluge of drugs or catch the kingpins behind it.

They also want a greater emphasis on reducing demand through more and better quality drug rehabilitation.

"There is so much scaremongering and hysteria surrounding the issue of drugs," says Gloria Lai of the International Drug Policy Consortium (IDPC), a global network of 154 non-governmental groups. "That's a disincentive for challenging old ways of thinking."

Meth is a transnational business, worth around $15 billion in mainland Southeast Asia alone in 2013, the UNODC says.

Much of the production takes place in laboratories in lawless western Myanmar. Ingredients such as pseudoephedrine and caffeine are smuggled across porous borders from India, China and Vietnam.

Laos and Thailand are major trafficking routes, with the finished product traveling by road or along the Mekong River for distribution throughout Southeast Asia and China.

Meth is sold in cheap pills called "ya ba", a Thai name meaning "crazy medicine", or in a more potent, crystalline form known as "crystal meth", "ice" or "shabu".

Contraband is effectively hidden amid rising volumes of regional trade, leaving law enforcement to play catch-up, said Jeremy Douglas, the UNODC's Asia Pacific chief.

"We need to start thinking about big-time regional engagement, up to the highest level. It's impossible to deal with the problem on a country-by-country basis," he said.

"I can't recall the last time a major trafficking kingpin was caught."

SOCIAL COST

The meth explosion carries huge social consequences: overburdened health services, overcrowded prisons, families and communities torn apart.

Small-time users and dealers bear the brunt of unsparing law enforcement that is popular in crime-weary communities. In mid-July, as drug war killings escalated in the Philippines, one survey put President Duterte's approval rating at 91 percent.

Thailand launched an equally popular "war on drugs" in 2003 that rights activists said killed about 2,800 people in three months, a death toll later halved by a government-appointed inquiry. Figures show it had no lasting impact on meth supply or demand in Thailand.

"The world has lost the war on drugs, not only Thailand," the country's justice minister Paiboon Koomchaya told Reuters in July.

Paiboon hinted at a radical shift in policy, saying he wanted to reclassify meth to reduce sentences for possessing and dealing the drug.

For now though, Thailand continues to jail thousands of petty drug users, with about 70 percent of its 300,000 or so prisoners jailed on drugs offences, according to government data.

TOUGH TO TREAT

Meth addiction is tough to treat, ideally requiring costly and time-consuming counseling. Long-term use can cause changes in brain structure and function.

In March, U.S. President Barack Obama said drug dependency should be seen as "a public health problem and not a criminal problem", part of a bid to roll back a "war on drugs" begun in the 1970s and now widely seen as a failure.

Policy in Asia is largely moving in the opposite direction, with drug rehabilitation underfunded and inadequate.

Less than 1 percent of dependent drug users in Indonesia got treatment in 2014, said the UNODC. Lacking alternatives, desperate Indonesians resort to herbal baths, Islamic prayer and other remedies of unproven efficacy.

"Rehab" in many countries often means detention at a state facility. In Thailand, thousands of users are held at army camps for four months. Relapse rates at drug detention centers range from 60-90 percent, says the World Health Organisation.

"Often, the government response causes more harm to an individual than the drug itself," said the IDPC's Lai.

Evidence shows that the most effective treatment is voluntary and community-based. A 2015 study in Malaysia found that half the people at compulsory centers relapsed within 32 days of release, compared with 429 days for those who had volunteered for treatment.

Tackling demand is complicated by meth's broad appeal across different ages, professions and social classes.

In Myanmar, manual laborers claim that smoking ya ba boosts their stamina, while students say it boosts their grades.

A Yangon student who asked to be identified by the nickname "Nick" told Reuters at a grim state-run rehab clinic that he smoked ya ba to help him concentrate on his studies.

When asked how many of his fellow students also used it, Nick replied: "Almost all of them."

Source: Reuters

segunda-feira, 22 de fevereiro de 2016

Reporting on Life, Death and Corruption in Southeast Asia


Agnes Dherbeys for The New York Times

The protesters built what looked like medieval ramparts topped with sharpened wooden stakes in the heart of Bangkok. The military was preparing to sweep them out.

As the sun was setting, I spotted Maj. Gen. Khattiya Sawatdiphol, a renegade who had defected to the protesters, and asked him what he would do next.

His “people’s army” would not back down, he said. “The military cannot get in here.”

Then came a loud crack, the sound of a sniper’s bullet breaking the sound barrier. General Khattiya collapsed at my feet.

One blink earlier he was answering my questions. Now he was slumped on the ground, his vacant eyes still open, as blood spilled onto his camouflage uniform. The world around me went into slow motion as I watched the general being dragged away by his supporters.

I have covered life and death in Southeast Asia for the past decade, a job that has entailed puzzling over a missing Malaysian plane one day (two years later, it’s still missing) and interviewing former C.I.A. mercenaries who were being hunted by the government in the jungles of Laos another. I seemed to spend almost as much time dodging the authorities as interviewing them.

The bullet that felled General Khattiya in 2010 missed my head by inches.

It is hard to speak collectively about a region of so many different languages, ethnicities, religions and political traditions. But as I start a new assignment in a part of the world that may as well be a different cosmos — Northern California — I have been trying to make sense of what I have seen in Southeast Asia.

I come back to one theme again and again: impunity.

In the killing of General Khattiya, who never regained consciousness and died several days later, a report by an independent body concluded that the assassin had probably fired from a building controlled by the military.

Yet no one has ever been charged. The general who helped lead the deadly military crackdown that ensued, killing 58 civilians, is now Thailand’s prime minister.

“Unfortunately, some people died,” said the prime minister at the time, Abhisit Vejjajiva. A murder case against him was dismissed.

It is often no secret who is committing abuses in Southeast Asia, whether they are illegally cutting down forests, trafficking drugs, skimming a percentage from government transactions or shooting protesters.

Unusual wealth, the euphemism for suspected graft, is everywhere.

The general now running Thailand, Prayuth Chan-ocha, is a career soldier from a modest background. Yet he declared a net worth of $4 million, nearly half of it in cash, soon after seizing power in a coup two years ago. (In an odd remnant of the country’s democratic past, the members of the junta were required to declare their assets.)

He has never explained how he amassed this tidy sum on his annual army salary of $40,000. “Do not judge people based on your perceptions,” he said in a television address after he and other top-ranking army officers and police officers revealed their fortunes.

Even in countries with tight controls on the news media, like Vietnam or Malaysia, there are brave journalists and armies of bloggers and Facebook commenters who try to expose wrongdoing. But the problem in Southeast Asia seems not so much exposing the truth as doing anything about it.

Watching the rise of Asia during my time here, I have wondered whether there can be continued prosperity without justice. Can societies so thoroughly riddled with corruption carry through with the remarkable economic advances made over recent decades?

To see wrongdoing here, sometimes all you have to do is knock. Across the Mekong River, in Laos, at the edge of a forest, I found the walled compound of Vixay Keosavang, a Laotian businessman who has been described as the Pablo Escobar of wildlife trafficking.

After I banged on the compound’s heavy metal gate, a security guard rolled it open. Yes, the guard said, there were live tigers, bears and many other endangered species inside. Neighbors said trucks regularly left Mr. Vixay’s compound loaded with lizards and pangolins, an anteater-like animal that is rapidly disappearing because it is eaten for supposed medicinal qualities.

Mr. Vixay had been so nonchalant in his trafficking business that he used commercial courier services to send rhino horns and ivory tusks directly to his company’s office in Laos.

Prompted by my article, the United States State Department offered a reward of $1 million for information leading to the dismantling of Mr. Vixay’s business, the first such reward of its kind.

No one has come forward to claim it. Mr. Vixay has never been charged. The Laotian authorities say they have no evidence against him.

After telling me about the animals inside, the guard called Mr. Vixay on a cellphone and handed it to my interpreter.

“There’s nothing there,” Mr. Vixay said. “Who told you about it?”

Laos, ruled by an authoritarian Communist party, has also constructed a wall of silence over the disappearance of Sombath Somphone, a civic leader who had called for more public participation and decision-making in society. Security cameras showed him being stopped at a police checkpoint and led away in December 2012. Yet the government has repeatedly said it has no information on his whereabouts.

The authorities in Southeast Asia have access to many of the same tools as their counterparts in wealthier countries. What seems to be lacking is not technology but political will to investigate powerfully connected people. Tony Pua, an opposition leader in Malaysia, calls it a culture of “forget it and move on.”

When a boat filled with refugees from Myanmar was abandoned by its crew, adrift in the Andaman Sea without adequate food or fuel last May, I obtained the number of someone on board and asked the phone company to track the phone’s location.

The phone company balked, so I contacted a friendly naval officer, Lt. Cmdr. Veerapong Nakprasit, who persuaded the company to give me the phone’s location on humanitarian grounds. The navy, aware that the refugees could die without help, presumably could have made the request and found the boat on its own.

We rented a speedboat and followed the coordinates until we found the stranded boat. Upon seeing us, several hundred rail-thin refugees, many of them women and children, called out for help. I dictated a story by phone to the newsroom in Hong Kong, and soon readers around the world were aware of the refugees’ plight. We had brought bottles of water, and we tossed them to the grateful passengers.

That evening, out of sight of journalists, the Thai Navy pushed the boat back out into the open sea.

The refugee crisis in Southeast Asia last year spiraled into a regional embarrassment that forced governments to admit that their own officials were complicit in trafficking desperate migrants from Myanmar. Yet in Thailand, amid a supposed crackdown on trafficking by the military junta, the head of the investigation fled to Australia and applied for political asylum, saying he had been threatened by powerful people.

The Thai junta has not set a firm timetable for leaving power, but its members are taking no chances.

Soon after the May 2014 coup, they issued a decree that put them above the law for “all acts,” including the seizure of power and any “punishments” they meted out.

The last words of the Constitution they wrote for themselves call for blanket immunity. The junta members are “entirely discharged” for their acts.

Lawyers representing the victims of the crackdown in 2010 say they see little hope for justice now that the military is in power.

One of the key witnesses in the crackdown, Nattatida Meewangpla, is a paramedic who says she saw six people shot by soldiers.

For the past year, she has been held in detention on the orders of a military court, charged with participating in a social media chat group that opposed the military takeover. Her lawyers say the military is trying to silence her.

“People were chased and killed,” she wrote to me from prison last month. “I am the only witness still breathing.”

My decade here has been a time of intense ambivalence. I was enchanted by people’s warmth, congeniality and politeness. When I interviewed protesters on torrid summer days, they would often fan my face as we spoke. I learned from my Thai friends how to laugh away life’s disappointments and annoyances. I relished the food and marveled at the hospitality.

But I despaired at the venality of the elites and the corruption that engulfed the lives of so many people I interviewed. I came to see Southeast Asia as a land of great people and bad governments, of remarkable graciousness but distressing levels of impunity.

Source: Ny Times

sexta-feira, 4 de setembro de 2015

Putin responsabiliza EUA por crise de refugiados na Europa

O presidente da Rússia, Vladimir Putin
Vladimir Putin: "Nós na Rússia, já previmos há vários anos problemas de envergadura se nossos parceiros ocidentais seguissem com essa sua política externa errônea, sobretudo nas regiões do mundo muçulmano"
O presidente da Rússia, Vladimir Putin, responsabilizou os Estados Unidos e a sua política no Oriente Médio pela avalanche de refugiados que chega atualmente à Europa.

"A Europa segue às cegas essa política (dos EUA) no marco de seus compromissos de aliados e depois arca com todo o peso" das consequências, disse Putin nesta sexta-feira aos jornalistas durante o Fórum Econômico de Vladivostok.

O presidente russo comentou que vê "com perplexidade como alguns meios de comunicação americanos criticam à Europa por uma excessiva, segundo eles, crueldade com os imigrantes", enquanto os próprios EUA não sofrem a avalanche de refugiados de países em guerra no Oriente Médio, na Ásia Central e no norte da África.

"A crise (de refugiados) era de se esperar. Nós na Rússia, e esse humilde servidor, já previmos há vários anos problemas de envergadura se nossos parceiros ocidentais seguissem com sua política externa errônea, sobretudo nas regiões do mundo muçulmano", lembrou Putin.

O chefe do Kremlin reiterou que essa política realizada até hoje pelo Ocidente pretende impor seus valores e padrões nessas regiões sem levar em conta suas peculiaridades históricas, religiosas, nacionais e culturais.

A primeira coisa que é preciso fazer para resolver o problema dos refugiados, segundo Putin, "é lutar juntos contra o terrorismo e os extremismos de todo tipo, principalmente nos países com problemas".

Putin reforçou que a Rússia quer impulsionar a criação de uma coalizão internacional para combater os jihadistas do Estado Islâmico (EI), uma proposta que já fez ao presidente americano, Barack Obama, e também a vários líderes do mundo árabe.

"Apesar de ser impossível hoje em dia que todos os países interessados em lutar contra o terrorismo se organizem no campo de batalha, seria preciso conseguir pelo menos uma coordenação entre eles", advertiu Putin em alusão à recusa do Ocidente, da Arábia Saudita e da oposição síria em lutar junto às tropas do presidente Bashar al Assad.

Enquanto Moscou considera que uma coalizão militar que una o regime de Damasco com sua oposição na luta contra um inimigo comum impulsionará o processo político na Síria, Washington se propôs a estender seus ataques aéreos às tropas de Assad se estas atacarem as milícias apoiadas pelo Ocidente.

A Rússia reiterou em muitas ocasiões suas críticas às potências ocidentais por minar as posições de Damasco, alegando que essa estratégia apenas debilitará a capacidade das autoridades sírias de fazer frente à ameaça do EI.

Fonte: http://exame.abril.com.br/mundo/noticias/putin-responsabiliza-eua-por-crise-de-refugiados-na-europa